NRL Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 23.81 | 14.26 | 9.50 |
| Storm | 8.88 | 19.20 | -10.30 |
| Knights | 8.36 | -6.54 | 14.90 |
| Broncos | 7.52 | -8.90 | 16.40 |
| Eels | 2.15 | 2.54 | -0.40 |
| Dragons | 1.98 | -7.99 | 10.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 1.44 | 10.99 | -9.60 |
| Titans | 1.44 | 1.05 | 0.40 |
| Raiders | 0.50 | -1.10 | 1.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -0.61 | 15.81 | -16.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.62 | -10.94 | 10.30 |
| Sharks | -2.70 | -1.10 | -1.60 |
| Bulldogs | -7.86 | -10.25 | 2.40 |
| Roosters | -12.67 | 2.23 | -14.90 |
| Cowboys | -14.65 | -12.27 | -2.40 |
| Warriors | -18.96 | -8.99 | -10.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 10 | 28 – 6 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Mar 11 | 24 – 19 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 11 | 11 – 4 | -21.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Roosters vs. Knights | Mar 12 | 6 – 20 | 11.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Warriors vs. Dragons | Mar 12 | 16 – 28 | 4.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Wests Tigers vs. Storm | Mar 12 | 16 – 26 | -27.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Titans | Mar 13 | 32 – 28 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Mar 13 | 4 – 6 | 1.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 17 | Storm | 12.50 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Mar 18 | Panthers | -18.80 |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 18 | Sea Eagles | -11.10 |
| 4 | Titans vs. Warriors | Mar 19 | Titans | 25.90 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Eels | Mar 19 | Eels | -1.80 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Raiders | Mar 19 | Raiders | -12.10 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 20 | Knights | 12.00 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Broncos | Mar 20 | Broncos | -12.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Almost accurate. Tipping the Panthers in the around 1 wasn’t easy. Everyone thought they going to lose. I think you have a good judgmental style of tipping. #fan
3 years ago
Thanks. However the main point of my predictions is that they are as much as possible simply based on data and an algorithm. I only exercise judgement in choice of parameters and assigning home ground advantage in some cases. I do try also to explain what I have done when making a judgement call based on my experience as a statistician.
Using only data and an algorithm I can produce forecasts after the event which are exactly as I would have produced before the event, which is what happened in this case.
3 years ago