March 8, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

By

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.47 14.79 0.70
Munster 11.61 10.69 0.90
Ulster 9.11 7.41 1.70
Edinburgh 5.15 2.90 2.30
Glasgow 3.34 3.69 -0.30
Stormers 3.24 0.00 3.20
Bulls 2.80 3.65 -0.80
Sharks 2.58 -0.07 2.60
Connacht 0.18 1.72 -1.50
Scarlets -0.75 -0.77 0.00
Ospreys -0.85 0.94 -1.80
Cardiff Rugby -1.94 -0.11 -1.80
Lions -3.52 -3.91 0.40
Benetton -5.27 -4.50 -0.80
Dragons -8.49 -6.92 -1.60
Zebre -16.60 -13.47 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Connacht Mar 05 56 – 8 8.00 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 05 48 – 12 15.50 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Leinster Mar 06 17 – 61 -11.30 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Dragons Mar 06 64 – 3 23.30 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Mar 06 35 – 10 0.10 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Zebre Mar 07 27 – 22 24.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ulster vs. Leinster Mar 13 Leinster -2.40
2 Sharks vs. Scarlets Mar 12 Sharks 9.80
3 Bulls vs. Munster Mar 13 Munster -2.30
4 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 13 Lions 4.90
5 Stormers vs. Zebre Mar 14 Stormers 26.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Andy Willmott

    Any NRL predictions for 2022?

    3 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      Yes. I got a bit caught out because I have been in Australia for nearly two weeks and haven’t been able to prepare the forecasts. I have downloaded the draw and have all the past data, but need to run my code to choose parameters. I should have predictions for round 2.

      3 years ago