March 8, 2022

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.66 13.43 1.20
Blues 8.58 9.26 -0.70
Hurricanes 7.95 8.28 -0.30
Chiefs 6.92 5.56 1.40
Highlanders 5.12 6.54 -1.40
Brumbies 3.54 3.61 -0.10
Reds 2.52 1.37 1.10
Western Force -3.84 -4.96 1.10
Waratahs -7.23 -9.00 1.80
Rebels -7.93 -5.79 -2.10
Moana Pasifika -10.16 -10.00 -0.20
Fijian Drua -11.83 -10.00 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders Mar 04 12 – 33 -19.00 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Mar 04 31 – 26 0.90 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 04 16 – 29 0.60 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Mar 05 24 – 22 8.10 TRUE
5 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Mar 05 21 – 14 8.60 TRUE
6 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 05 27 – 20 17.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 11 Blues 9.00
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 11 Brumbies -6.00
3 Western Force vs. Waratahs Mar 11 Western Force 8.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 12 Hurricanes 23.60
5 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Mar 12 Crusaders 13.20
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 12 Reds 19.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »