United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.01 | 14.79 | -0.80 |
| Munster | 9.97 | 10.69 | -0.70 |
| Ulster | 8.10 | 7.41 | 0.70 |
| Glasgow | 4.52 | 3.69 | 0.80 |
| Edinburgh | 3.42 | 2.90 | 0.50 |
| Stormers | 3.24 | 0.00 | 3.20 |
| Bulls | 2.80 | 3.65 | -0.80 |
| Sharks | 2.58 | -0.07 | 2.60 |
| Connacht | 1.90 | 1.72 | 0.20 |
| Ospreys | 0.10 | 0.94 | -0.80 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -0.93 | -0.11 | -0.80 |
| Scarlets | -1.93 | -0.77 | -1.20 |
| Lions | -3.52 | -3.91 | 0.40 |
| Benetton | -3.81 | -4.50 | 0.70 |
| Dragons | -6.85 | -6.92 | 0.10 |
| Zebre | -17.56 | -13.47 | -4.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leinster vs. Lions | Feb 26 | 21 – 13 | 25.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Zebre vs. Bulls | Feb 26 | 7 – 45 | -11.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Sharks | Feb 27 | 7 – 29 | 2.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Connacht vs. Stormers | Feb 27 | 19 – 17 | 5.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Mar 05 | Bulls | 4.60 |
| 2 | Edinburgh vs. Connacht | Mar 05 | Edinburgh | 8.00 |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Lions | Mar 05 | Sharks | 11.10 |
| 4 | Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby | Mar 05 | Ulster | 15.50 |
| 5 | Benetton vs. Leinster | Mar 06 | Leinster | -11.30 |
| 6 | Munster vs. Dragons | Mar 06 | Munster | 23.30 |
| 7 | Scarlets vs. Glasgow | Mar 06 | Scarlets | 0.10 |
| 8 | Ospreys vs. Zebre | Mar 07 | Ospreys | 24.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »