Posts from February 2022 (24)

February 2, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.71 14.79 -0.10
Munster 9.92 10.69 -0.80
Ulster 7.14 7.41 -0.30
Glasgow 4.87 3.69 1.20
Edinburgh 3.66 2.90 0.80
Bulls 2.57 3.65 -1.10
Connacht 2.28 1.72 0.60
Stormers 1.40 0.00 1.40
Sharks 1.12 -0.07 1.20
Ospreys 0.18 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.39 -0.77 -0.60
Benetton -3.05 -4.50 1.40
Lions -3.66 -3.91 0.30
Dragons -6.46 -6.92 0.50
Zebre -16.31 -13.47 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Benetton Jan 29 13 – 13 3.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Scarlets Jan 29 27 – 15 15.70 TRUE
3 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Jan 30 29 – 27 -10.50 FALSE
4 Connacht vs. Glasgow Jan 30 20 – 42 6.50 FALSE
5 Ospreys vs. Edinburgh Jan 30 23 – 19 2.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Jan 30 22 – 22 5.70 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Bulls Jan 30 10 – 34 1.10 FALSE
8 Zebre vs. Munster Jan 30 17 – 34 -20.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ulster vs. Connacht Feb 05 Ulster 9.90
2 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 06 Bulls -1.20
3 Stormers vs. Sharks Feb 06 Stormers 5.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.83 6.83 1.00
La Rochelle 7.48 6.78 0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 6.87 5.42 1.50
Lyon Rugby 5.26 4.15 1.10
Racing-Metro 92 4.76 6.13 -1.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 5.09 -0.60
Montpellier 4.11 -0.01 4.10
Castres Olympique 0.92 0.94 -0.00
RC Toulonnais 0.05 1.82 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.10 1.20 -1.30
Section Paloise -2.19 -2.25 0.10
Brive -2.94 -3.19 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.09 -2.78 -1.30
Biarritz -5.05 -2.78 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 23 – 10 12.40 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Biarritz Jan 30 33 – 10 7.60 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Jan 30 23 – 29 11.00 FALSE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 15 – 20 10.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 30 23 – 28 -2.60 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 31 28 – 20 -1.00 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 26 – 24 6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 06 Stade Toulousain -5.40
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 06 Lyon Rugby 11.90
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Feb 06 Montpellier 12.80
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Feb 06 Racing-Metro 92 14.20
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 06 RC Toulonnais 5.60
6 Biarritz vs. La Rochelle Feb 07 La Rochelle -6.00
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 07 Clermont Auvergne 4.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.27 7.35 -3.10
Saracens 3.60 -5.00 8.60
Wasps 1.80 5.66 -3.90
Leicester Tigers 1.69 -6.14 7.80
Sale Sharks 1.66 4.96 -3.30
Gloucester 1.28 -1.02 2.30
Harlequins 1.26 -1.08 2.30
Northampton Saints 0.62 -2.48 3.10
Bristol -1.85 1.28 -3.10
London Irish -3.56 -8.05 4.50
Bath -4.99 2.14 -7.10
Newcastle Falcons -7.24 -3.52 -3.70
Worcester Warriors -10.15 -5.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 51.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Jan 29 21 – 17 -2.50 FALSE
2 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 30 18 – 14 -4.30 FALSE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 30 22 – 32 -3.20 TRUE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Jan 30 13 – 29 -5.10 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 31 35 – 26 3.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Jan 31 26 – 20 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 06 Bristol 9.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Wasps Feb 06 Exeter Chiefs 7.00
3 Gloucester vs. London Irish Feb 06 Gloucester 9.30
4 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 06 Harlequins 4.10
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 06 Leicester Tigers 16.30
6 Saracens vs. Bath Feb 06 Saracens 13.10

 

February 1, 2022

Pie charts, Oz edition

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From The Australian (via Luke Wihone on Twitter)

There’s two issues here. First, they are called percentages for a reason — they should add up to 100. This is what it looks like with the missing 16%

Even if you decided to rescale the percentages to give a two-candidate pie, though, the graph is wrong. This is what it would actually look like

That’s Australia. A graph like this one used in New Zealand politics would seem to come under the  Advertising Standards Authority decision saying misleading graphs are not actually misleading if they have the numbers written on them.  As I said at the time, I think this is bad as a matter of political norms and factually incorrect as to the impact of graphics. Maybe we can get it changed.

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