February 22, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.91 14.79 0.10
Munster 9.97 10.69 -0.70
Ulster 8.10 7.41 0.70
Glasgow 4.52 3.69 0.80
Edinburgh 3.42 2.90 0.50
Stormers 2.89 0.00 2.90
Connacht 2.25 1.72 0.50
Bulls 1.55 3.65 -2.10
Sharks 1.42 -0.07 1.50
Ospreys 0.10 0.94 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.93 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.93 -0.77 -1.20
Benetton -2.65 -4.50 1.80
Lions -4.43 -3.91 -0.50
Dragons -6.85 -6.92 0.10
Zebre -16.31 -13.47 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 34 – 20 12.80 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Benetton Feb 20 13 – 3 14.50 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Ospreys Feb 20 29 – 7 21.20 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Connacht Feb 20 23 – 29 3.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Ulster Feb 21 0 – 12 -7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Lions Feb 26 Leinster 25.80
2 Zebre vs. Bulls Feb 26 Bulls -11.40
3 Benetton vs. Sharks Feb 27 Benetton 2.40
4 Connacht vs. Stormers Feb 27 Connacht 5.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »