Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 6.76 | 6.78 | -0.00 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.33 | 5.42 | 0.90 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.12 | 6.83 | -0.70 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.55 | 6.13 | -0.60 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.94 | 4.15 | 0.80 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.34 | 5.09 | -0.80 |
| Montpellier | 4.27 | -0.01 | 4.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 1.74 | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.45 | 0.94 | 0.50 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.23 | 1.82 | -2.00 |
| Section Paloise | -1.74 | -2.25 | 0.50 |
| Brive | -3.27 | -3.19 | -0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.30 | -2.78 | -0.50 |
| Biarritz | -5.60 | -2.78 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 122 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Montpellier | Feb 20 | 16 – 16 | -1.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby | Feb 20 | 19 – 17 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Clermont Auvergne | Feb 20 | 31 – 27 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 20 | 27 – 22 | -2.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Biarritz | Feb 20 | 65 – 19 | 11.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 20 | 29 – 18 | 9.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Feb 21 | 13 – 16 | 8.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. RC Toulonnais | Feb 27 | Brive | 3.50 |
| 2 | Clermont Auvergne vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 27 | Clermont Auvergne | 14.10 |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Biarritz | Feb 27 | Lyon Rugby | 17.00 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 27 | Montpellier | 9.00 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 27 | Racing-Metro 92 | 10.60 |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. La Rochelle | Feb 27 | La Rochelle | -2.00 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Feb 27 | Stade Toulousain | 6.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »