Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 4.44 | -5.00 | 9.40 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.63 | 7.35 | -3.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.49 | 4.96 | -1.50 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.47 | -6.14 | 8.60 |
| Wasps | 2.29 | 5.66 | -3.40 |
| Gloucester | 1.54 | -1.02 | 2.60 |
| Harlequins | 0.24 | -1.08 | 1.30 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.08 | -2.48 | 2.40 |
| London Irish | -2.50 | -8.05 | 5.50 |
| Bristol | -3.17 | 1.28 | -4.50 |
| Bath | -6.41 | 2.14 | -8.50 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.24 | -3.52 | -3.70 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.32 | -5.71 | -4.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 100 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | Feb 20 | 20 – 24 | -4.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Harlequins vs. Wasps | Feb 20 | 29 – 24 | 2.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Saracens | Feb 20 | 32 – 30 | -3.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 20 | 14 – 15 | -7.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Feb 20 | 21 – 22 | 1.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Bristol | Feb 20 | 19 – 14 | -3.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Wasps | Feb 27 | Wasps | -1.00 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Feb 27 | Leicester Tigers | 5.40 |
| 3 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bath | Feb 27 | Newcastle Falcons | 3.70 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Feb 27 | Northampton Saints | 0.80 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. London Irish | Feb 27 | Sale Sharks | 10.50 |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Harlequins | Feb 27 | Harlequins | -6.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »