Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1
Team Ratings for Week 1
A couple of comments for the start of this competition.
I have in the past have had reasonable success rating new teams at -10, and have done that this time. The Waratahs were a total disaster last year and rated -11. I don’t believe they will be worse than the new teams so did adjust their rating to -9. Even this may be viewing them a little negatively. Overall, be aware this is a new competition in a number of ways, and initially I may not achieve very good results.
I have predicted a result for the opening game involving Moana Pasifika, which seems unlikely to go ahead.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 13.43 | 13.43 | 0.00 |
| Blues | 9.26 | 9.26 | -0.00 |
| Hurricanes | 8.28 | 8.28 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | 6.54 | 6.54 | -0.00 |
| Chiefs | 5.56 | 5.56 | -0.00 |
| Brumbies | 3.61 | 3.61 | -0.00 |
| Reds | 1.37 | 1.37 | -0.00 |
| Western Force | -4.96 | -4.96 | 0.00 |
| Rebels | -5.79 | -5.79 | -0.00 |
| Waratahs | -9.00 | -9.00 | 0.00 |
| Moana Pasifika | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Fijian Drua | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Week 1
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Blues | Feb 18 | Blues | -19.30 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua | Feb 18 | Waratahs | 6.50 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Feb 19 | Highlanders | -6.50 |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Feb 19 | Crusaders | 5.20 |
| 5 | Reds vs. Rebels | Feb 19 | Reds | 12.70 |
| 6 | Brumbies vs. Western Force | Feb 19 | Brumbies | 14.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
David, do you think that having the NZ teams in camp in Queenstown and thus no home advantage will make much of a difference?
3 years ago
Home ground advantage is very interesting generally in this competition. For the games being played in Otago I am reasonably happy with simply taking all games other than those involving the Highlanders as being played on neutral grounds. Any games the Highlanders play at Forsythe-Barr or Wakatipu Stadium I have assigned them home ground advantage.
I have had to make more difficult decisions concerning Moana Pasifika and particularly Fijuan Drua. I have treated Moana Pasifika as a New Zealand team, with Mt Smart as their home ground. Fijian Drua are playing nearly all their home games in Australia, just one in Fiji according to what I read, but the Australian games are all over the place. I am treating them as an Australian team but not giving them home ground advantage for Australian games. For the Fiji game I may have to do a special adjustment to their home ground advantage because I have a different home ground advantage for teams from the same country to where the teams are from different countries.
3 years ago