United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.71 | 14.79 | -0.10 |
| Munster | 9.92 | 10.69 | -0.80 |
| Ulster | 7.71 | 7.41 | 0.30 |
| Glasgow | 4.87 | 3.69 | 1.20 |
| Edinburgh | 3.66 | 2.90 | 0.80 |
| Bulls | 2.28 | 3.65 | -1.40 |
| Stormers | 1.83 | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| Connacht | 1.71 | 1.72 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 0.69 | -0.07 | 0.80 |
| Ospreys | 0.18 | 0.94 | -0.80 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -0.93 | -0.11 | -0.80 |
| Scarlets | -1.39 | -0.77 | -0.60 |
| Benetton | -3.05 | -4.50 | 1.40 |
| Lions | -3.37 | -3.91 | 0.50 |
| Dragons | -6.46 | -6.92 | 0.50 |
| Zebre | -16.31 | -13.47 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 67 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ulster vs. Connacht | Feb 05 | 32 – 12 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bulls vs. Lions | Feb 06 | 21 – 13 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Feb 06 | 20 – 10 | 5.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leinster vs. Edinburgh | Feb 12 | Leinster | 17.50 |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Munster | Feb 12 | Glasgow | 1.40 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Stormers | Feb 13 | Stormers | -0.20 |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Feb 13 | Bulls | 6.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, it seems you’re missing some predictions for round 14 of the URC for example 11 Feb Leinster Rugby vs Edinburgh to name one?
3 years ago
Thanks for the heads up Jacques. Fixed now.
3 years ago
Hi David, re URC week 13’s prediction / result for the second match. The Bulls hosted the Lions and won 21-13. So this should be a true prediction although you predicted an away win for the Bulls?
3 years ago
Thanks for spotting this Arno. I have updated now.
I have been doing a lot of hand entering of data in the URC and it is easy to make mistakes. Mistakes arising from programming errors or website changes show up more easily.
I did note in passing that that result was a bit surprising, but didn’t check further. I have fixed my data now and rerun the prediction code. Importantly, that changes the prediction for the Lions next game which was originally line ball, barely for the Lions. I had noted that close result prediction previously and thought it a bit unlikely also. As I often state though, these predictions are solely based on data and a formula, so I presented the result as it came out.
3 years ago