Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.03 | 6.78 | 0.20 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.97 | 6.83 | 0.10 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.87 | 5.42 | 1.50 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.50 | 6.13 | -0.60 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.87 | 4.15 | 0.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.45 | 5.09 | -0.60 |
| Montpellier | 4.32 | -0.01 | 4.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.49 | 0.94 | 0.50 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.30 | 1.20 | -0.90 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.53 | 1.82 | -2.30 |
| Section Paloise | -2.40 | -2.25 | -0.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.23 | -2.78 | -0.50 |
| Brive | -3.68 | -3.19 | -0.50 |
| Biarritz | -4.60 | -2.78 | -1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 111 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 06 | 36 – 13 | -5.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 06 | 26 – 22 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Feb 06 | 29 – 12 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive | Feb 06 | 57 – 19 | 14.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 06 | 10 – 22 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Biarritz vs. La Rochelle | Feb 07 | 27 – 24 | -6.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne | Feb 13 | Clermont Auvergne | -1.30 |
| 2 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise | Feb 13 | Racing-Metro 92 | 13.30 |
| 3 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris | Feb 12 | Stade Toulousain | 14.70 |
| 4 | RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Feb 13 | Bordeaux-Begles | -1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »