United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 15.38 | 14.79 | 0.60 |
| Munster | 10.22 | 10.69 | -0.50 |
| Ulster | 7.47 | 7.41 | 0.10 |
| Edinburgh | 3.77 | 2.90 | 0.90 |
| Connacht | 3.60 | 1.72 | 1.90 |
| Glasgow | 3.55 | 3.69 | -0.10 |
| Bulls | 1.98 | 3.65 | -1.70 |
| Sharks | 0.97 | -0.07 | 1.00 |
| Stormers | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ospreys | 0.07 | 0.94 | -0.90 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -1.61 | -0.11 | -1.50 |
| Scarlets | -1.72 | -0.77 | -1.00 |
| Lions | -1.80 | -3.91 | 2.10 |
| Benetton | -3.39 | -4.50 | 1.10 |
| Dragons | -6.12 | -6.92 | 0.80 |
| Zebre | -16.61 | -13.47 | -3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby | Jan 09 | 34 – 10 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Ospreys | Jan 09 | 38 – 19 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Munster vs. Ulster | Jan 09 | 18 – 13 | 8.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jan 23 | Lions | 2.20 |
| 2 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jan 23 | Bulls | 6.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David, the South African teams are playing each other in the URC on 22 Jan which you don’t have any predictions on?
3 years ago
Thanks Jacques, I have updated my fixture details and the predictions are now for those games. There will be new predictions for later games.
The cancellation and rescheduling of games is a real headache for the URC so let me know if I miss anything. The URC website is a problem because games are only given in round order and not calendar order.
3 years ago