January 11, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 4.76 7.35 -2.60
Saracens 3.91 -5.00 8.90
Leicester Tigers 2.01 -6.14 8.10
Harlequins 1.65 -1.08 2.70
Wasps 1.49 5.66 -4.20
Sale Sharks 1.33 4.96 -3.60
Gloucester 0.87 -1.02 1.90
Northampton Saints 0.01 -2.48 2.50
Bristol -1.85 1.28 -3.10
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.38 2.14 -7.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.83 -3.52 -3.30
Worcester Warriors -9.54 -5.71 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 08 32 – 15 -0.50 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 09 14 – 12 1.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Jan 09 8 – 44 1.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Jan 09 24 – 25 8.60 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 10 22 – 19 9.40 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 10 16 – 13 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Jan 29 Harlequins -2.50
2 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 30 Exeter Chiefs -4.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 30 Gloucester -3.20
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Jan 30 Northampton Saints -5.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 31 Sale Sharks 3.80
6 Wasps vs. Saracens Jan 31 Wasps 2.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »