Top 14 Predictions for Round 15
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.35 | 6.83 | 1.50 |
| La Rochelle | 8.04 | 6.78 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.89 | 5.42 | 1.50 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.85 | 5.09 | -0.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.74 | 4.15 | 0.60 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 4.29 | 6.13 | -1.80 |
| Montpellier | 3.55 | -0.01 | 3.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.02 | 0.94 | 0.10 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.07 | 1.20 | -1.10 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.19 | 1.82 | -2.00 |
| Section Paloise | -2.24 | -2.25 | 0.00 |
| Brive | -3.49 | -3.19 | -0.30 |
| Biarritz | -4.10 | -2.78 | -1.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.41 | -2.78 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 93 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 02 | 16 – 13 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Stade Francais Paris vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 02 | 27 – 17 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Biarritz | Jan 03 | 30 – 27 | 18.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle | Jan 03 | 31 – 30 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Jan 03 | 37 – 35 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Brive | Jan 03 | 43 – 20 | 6.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 09 | Biarritz | 6.80 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Jan 09 | Bordeaux-Begles | -3.90 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Paris | Jan 09 | Castres Olympique | 7.40 |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise | Jan 09 | Lyon Rugby | 13.50 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne | Jan 09 | Racing-Metro 92 | 5.90 |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle | Jan 09 | La Rochelle | -1.70 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Jan 10 | Stade Toulousain | 11.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »