Asking the same question

According to a poll published in the Washington Post, a substantial majority of Americans think it is never justified for citizens to take violent action against the government. Given the US reverence for George Washington and others who fought in the Revolutionary War, this seems a bit strange. It’s hard to interpret what any particular percentage would mean.

What’s important about the poll is that the percentage is down compared to previous polls with the same question. It’s hard to interpret the level of agreement, but it seems pretty reasonable that a decrease indicates more willingness to consider violence against the government as an option that might come into play in the foreseeable future.  Or, at least, it would be if the polling approach hadn’t also changed, from phone to online, complicating any interpretation of changes.

Similarly, when the poll finds 30% of people claim to think there is solid evidence of widespread electoral fraud in 2020, it’s a bit hard to tell what that really corresponds to — how much is actual belief and how much is going along with a party line.  The fact that it’s about the same percentage as a year ago is more informative, as is the fact that it’s higher than similar questions about past elections.

Asking the same questions over time is a much better way to pick up changes than asking people if their opinion has changed. As a strategy, it can conflict with asking the best question, and that’s an ongoing tension in public opinion research and official statistics.