December 28, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.23 7.35 -2.10
Saracens 3.24 -5.00 8.20
Sale Sharks 1.98 4.96 -3.00
Wasps 1.85 5.66 -3.80
Harlequins 1.17 -1.08 2.20
Leicester Tigers 0.83 -6.14 7.00
Gloucester 0.75 -1.02 1.80
Northampton Saints -0.49 -2.48 2.00
Bristol -3.18 1.28 -4.50
Newcastle Falcons -4.01 -3.52 -0.50
London Irish -4.05 -8.05 4.00
Bath -5.00 2.14 -7.10
Worcester Warriors -9.93 -5.71 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 49.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Dec 27 20 – 40 0.90 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 26 – 28 1.00 FALSE
3 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Dec 27 41 – 27 5.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 61 – 29 16.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. London Irish Dec 27 38 – 30 10.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 02 Exeter Chiefs 12.90
2 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Jan 02 Sale Sharks 4.60
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Jan 03 Gloucester 4.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 03 Leicester Tigers 9.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Jan 03 Northampton Saints 0.80
6 London Irish vs. Bath Jan 04 London Irish 5.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »