December 7, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.35 6.83 1.50
La Rochelle 7.67 6.78 0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 7.40 5.42 2.00
Lyon Rugby 5.47 4.15 1.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 5.09 -0.20
Racing-Metro 92 4.01 6.13 -2.10
Montpellier 3.07 -0.01 3.10
Castres Olympique 0.82 0.94 -0.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.13 1.20 -1.10
RC Toulonnais -0.19 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.78 -2.25 -0.50
Brive -2.96 -3.19 0.20
Biarritz -4.14 -2.78 -1.40
USA Perpignan -4.35 -2.78 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 17 – 7 5.10 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 25 – 3 2.00 TRUE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Biarritz Dec 05 39 – 11 14.60 TRUE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive Dec 05 41 – 0 13.20 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 05 30 – 6 13.20 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 16 – 16 4.40 FALSE
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Dec 06 25 – 20 -1.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Montpellier Dec 27 Montpellier -0.70
2 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 Clermont Auvergne -1.30
3 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 La Rochelle 8.70
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Dec 27 Racing-Metro 92 13.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 Stade Toulousain 14.70
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 Bordeaux-Begles -1.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Dec 27 USA Perpignan 1.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »