Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 5.23 | 7.35 | -2.10 |
| Saracens | 2.39 | -5.00 | 7.40 |
| Wasps | 2.08 | 5.66 | -3.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.98 | 4.96 | -3.00 |
| Harlequins | 0.66 | -1.08 | 1.70 |
| Leicester Tigers | 0.59 | -6.14 | 6.70 |
| Northampton Saints | 0.02 | -2.48 | 2.50 |
| Gloucester | -0.31 | -1.02 | 0.70 |
| Bristol | -2.94 | 1.28 | -4.20 |
| Bath | -3.94 | 2.14 | -6.10 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -4.01 | -3.52 | -0.50 |
| London Irish | -4.27 | -8.05 | 3.80 |
| Worcester Warriors | -9.09 | -5.71 | -3.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 60 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens | Dec 05 | 18 – 15 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Bristol | Dec 05 | 27 – 10 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | Dec 05 | 16 – 14 | 4.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 05 | 43 – 21 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Dec 05 | 40 – 19 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps | Dec 05 | 32 – 31 | -7.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Gloucester | Dec 27 | Bath | 0.90 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 27 | Bristol | 1.00 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 27 | Harlequins | 5.10 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 27 | Sale Sharks | -1.50 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Worcester Warriors | Dec 27 | Saracens | 16.00 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. London Irish | Dec 27 | Wasps | 10.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »