Top 14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.98 | 6.83 | 2.20 |
| La Rochelle | 7.60 | 6.78 | 0.80 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.29 | 5.42 | 0.90 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.52 | 6.13 | -0.60 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.88 | 4.15 | 0.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.61 | 5.09 | -0.50 |
| Montpellier | 3.14 | -0.01 | 3.10 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.21 | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.26 | 0.94 | -1.20 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.66 | 1.82 | -2.50 |
| Section Paloise | -2.15 | -2.25 | 0.10 |
| Brive | -2.49 | -3.19 | 0.70 |
| Biarritz | -3.68 | -2.78 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.18 | -2.78 | -1.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 06 | 26 – 3 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Nov 07 | 12 – 10 | -1.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 07 | 30 – 23 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Biarritz | Nov 07 | 33 – 21 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier | Nov 07 | 27 – 31 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 07 | 37 – 15 | 19.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais | Nov 08 | 31 – 16 | 11.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Stade Francais Paris | Nov 28 | Biarritz | 3.00 |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise | Nov 28 | La Rochelle | 16.30 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 28 | Montpellier | 9.90 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Nov 28 | Racing-Metro 92 | 5.70 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Brive | Nov 28 | Stade Toulousain | 18.00 |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Lyon Rugby | Nov 28 | RC Toulonnais | 1.00 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Auvergne | Nov 28 | Clermont Auvergne | -2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »