Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 5.28 | 7.35 | -2.10 |
| Wasps | 3.20 | 5.66 | -2.50 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.41 | 4.96 | -2.60 |
| Saracens | 1.65 | -5.00 | 6.70 |
| Harlequins | 1.22 | -1.08 | 2.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | 0.82 | -6.14 | 7.00 |
| Bristol | -1.25 | 1.28 | -2.50 |
| Gloucester | -1.56 | -1.02 | -0.50 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.80 | -2.48 | 0.70 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -2.32 | -3.52 | 1.20 |
| Bath | -2.92 | 2.14 | -5.10 |
| London Irish | -6.08 | -8.05 | 2.00 |
| Worcester Warriors | -10.27 | -5.71 | -4.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Nov 06 | 40 – 23 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors | Nov 07 | 27 – 5 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 07 | 14 – 15 | 13.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 07 | 30 – 6 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. London Irish | Nov 07 | 34 – 34 | 13.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Harlequins | Nov 08 | 16 – 26 | 8.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 28 | Exeter Chiefs | -3.70 |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 28 | Bristol | 5.00 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. London Irish | Nov 28 | Harlequins | 11.80 |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors | Nov 28 | Newcastle Falcons | 12.50 |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 28 | Saracens | 3.70 |
| 6 | Wasps vs. Gloucester | Nov 28 | Wasps | 9.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »