Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 9.16 | 6.83 | 2.30 |
| La Rochelle | 7.55 | 6.78 | 0.80 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.43 | 5.42 | 1.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.75 | 4.15 | 1.60 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.40 | 6.13 | -0.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.83 | 5.09 | -0.30 |
| Montpellier | 2.12 | -0.01 | 2.10 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.47 | 1.20 | -0.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.09 | 0.94 | -1.00 |
| RC Toulonnais | -0.18 | 1.82 | -2.00 |
| Section Paloise | -2.65 | -2.25 | -0.40 |
| Brive | -3.12 | -3.19 | 0.10 |
| Biarritz | -3.77 | -2.78 | -1.00 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.54 | -2.78 | -1.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Brive | Oct 24 | 37 – 9 | 4.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 24 | 39 – 13 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Section Paloise | Oct 24 | 42 – 20 | 13.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. RC Toulonnais | Oct 24 | 39 – 6 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Montpellier | Oct 24 | 21 – 32 | 11.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby | Oct 24 | 23 – 18 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 24 | 41 – 0 | 14.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne | Oct 31 | Bordeaux-Begles | 8.10 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Brive | Oct 31 | Castres Olympique | 9.50 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby | Oct 31 | Montpellier | 2.90 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 31 | Racing-Metro 92 | 2.70 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris | Oct 31 | Section Paloise | 3.40 |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Biarritz | Oct 31 | RC Toulonnais | 10.10 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle | Oct 31 | La Rochelle | -5.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »