United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 15.28 | 14.79 | 0.50 |
| Munster | 11.64 | 10.69 | 1.00 |
| Ulster | 7.91 | 7.41 | 0.50 |
| Glasgow | 3.35 | 3.69 | -0.30 |
| Bulls | 2.61 | 3.65 | -1.00 |
| Connacht | 1.62 | 1.72 | -0.10 |
| Edinburgh | 1.61 | 2.90 | -1.30 |
| Stormers | 1.57 | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| Sharks | 0.34 | -0.07 | 0.40 |
| Ospreys | 0.31 | 0.94 | -0.60 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.00 |
| Scarlets | -1.41 | -0.77 | -0.60 |
| Lions | -3.08 | -3.91 | 0.80 |
| Benetton | -4.81 | -4.50 | -0.30 |
| Dragons | -5.73 | -6.92 | 1.20 |
| Zebre | -15.06 | -13.47 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Stormers | Oct 16 | 10 – 24 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Ulster vs. Lions | Oct 16 | 26 – 10 | 17.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Zebre vs. Glasgow | Oct 16 | 6 – 17 | -12.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Benetton vs. Ospreys | Oct 17 | 26 – 29 | 2.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Bulls | Oct 17 | 17 – 10 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Leinster vs. Scarlets | Oct 17 | 50 – 15 | 21.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks | Oct 17 | 23 – 17 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Munster vs. Connacht | Oct 17 | 20 – 18 | 16.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarlets vs. Benetton | Oct 23 | Scarlets | 9.90 |
| 2 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Oct 23 | Edinburgh | -10.20 |
| 3 | Glasgow vs. Leinster | Oct 24 | Leinster | -5.40 |
| 4 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons | Oct 24 | Cardiff Rugby | 10.60 |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Ulster | Oct 24 | Ulster | -1.30 |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Munster | Oct 24 | Munster | -4.80 |
| 7 | Lions vs. Sharks | Feb 05 | Lions | 1.60 |
| 8 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Feb 05 | Stormers | 4.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »