Top 14 Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 8.04 | 6.83 | 1.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.63 | 6.78 | -0.20 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 6.19 | 5.42 | 0.80 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.13 | 6.13 | -0.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.86 | 4.15 | 0.70 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.38 | 5.09 | -0.70 |
| Montpellier | 1.37 | -0.01 | 1.40 |
| RC Toulonnais | 1.22 | 1.82 | -0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.71 | 0.94 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.22 | 1.20 | -1.40 |
| Section Paloise | -1.67 | -2.25 | 0.60 |
| Brive | -2.75 | -3.19 | 0.40 |
| Biarritz | -3.16 | -2.78 | -0.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.36 | -2.78 | -1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris | Oct 02 | 19 – 12 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon Rugby vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Oct 02 | 15 – 20 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. La Rochelle | Oct 02 | 21 – 11 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Oct 02 | 14 – 29 | 5.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Biarritz vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 03 | 11 – 17 | -4.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais | Oct 03 | 27 – 16 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Oct 04 | 26 – 17 | 4.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Lyon Rugby | Oct 10 | Lyon Rugby | -1.50 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier | Oct 10 | Bordeaux-Begles | 11.30 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 10 | La Rochelle | 12.40 |
| 4 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 10 | Racing-Metro 92 | 17.00 |
| 5 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne | Oct 10 | Stade Francais Paris | 1.90 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Oct 10 | Stade Toulousain | 16.20 |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais vs. Brive | Oct 10 | RC Toulonnais | 10.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »