Posts from September 2021 (23)

September 7, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.28 5.14 1.10
Sharks 5.10 5.19 -0.10
Western Province 1.42 3.28 -1.90
Lions -1.88 3.74 -5.60
Cheetahs -2.70 -2.17 -0.50
Pumas -3.31 -5.67 2.40
Griquas -4.92 -9.50 4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 04 28 – 24 13.90 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 04 48 – 31 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Sep 11 Bulls 4.20

 

September 2, 2021

A step forward for genomic-based medicine

The world’s Covid response has benefited from the twenty-odd years of large-scale genetics research that preceded it: inexpensive, widely-available PCR and sequencing; mRNA synthesis and delivery.  None of that was the plan, though.  Genomics was supposed to produce widely-applicable treatments for diverse medical problems, and revolutionise medical diagnosis and treatment. It didn’t: there have been genuine breakthroughs, but mostly in the  form of expensive treatments for rare diseases.

Today in Britain, there was definite progress.   NICE, who make recommendations for medication subsidy decisions, have pushed for the funding of inclisiran in people who have high cholesterol and who’ve already had a stroke or heart attack.  Inclisiran lowers LDL (‘bad’) cholesterol a long way, by a different mechanism from the current ‘statin’ drugs, and it can be given by twice-yearly injection at a GP’s office. The drug would usually cost more than it’s worth, but the NHS has a Pharmac-like secret deal to pay less than the £2,000 sticker price.

I’m not sure this is huge news from a public health point of view, but it’s interesting to someone who has worked in genetic epidemiology.  Inclisiran inhibits a gene called PCSK9.  The function of PCSK9 was originally fairly obscure; mutations in it were found by genetic linkage analysis to be related to familial high cholesterol in a group of families who didn’t have mutations in the known high-cholesterol genes.  Research in the Dallas Heart Study, a cohort study of risks for heart disease, found that several people with unusually low cholesterol also had mutations in PCSK9, suggesting that blocking the gene’s action would lower cholesterol.  Now, we actually need some cholesterol, so you’d worry that blocking the gene could be dangerous — but the Dallas Heart Study also found one woman who had natural mutations in both her copies of the gene, and who had extraordinarily low LDL cholesterol and no apparent adverse health effects.  All this came from largely correlational research that relied on inexpensive, large-scale gene sequencing — exactly what genomics had promised.

The other genetic aspect of the new treatment is that it works by silencing the gene, rather than the more-usual approach of blocking the activity of the enzyme after it has been produced.  Inclisiran is a ‘small interfering RNA’ molecule that binds to messenger RNA from the PCSK9 gene and triggers the cell’s recycling mechanisms to chop it up. The protein never gets produced.  This idea has been through hype and disappointment cycles — a small piece of RNA injected into the body looks remarkably like a virus, and the immune system tends to disapprove — but this time it seems to work, and to work on a common risk fact for a common disease.

The return on genetic ‘precision medicine’ has still been rather disappointing compared to the hype, but it’s nice to have the occasional example where it does basically work as promised.

Drug development and snakebite

Newshub has a commendably restrained story about some biochemical research into possible starting points for Covid treatment

Brazilian researchers have found that a molecule in the venom of a type of snake inhibited coronavirus reproduction in monkey cells, a possible first step toward a drug to combat the virus causing COVID-19.

Not everyone is so calm about it: The Hill says Brazilian viper venom shows promise as drug to combat COVID-19, the Daily Express says Covid breakthrough as deadly Brazilian snake venom 75% effective in stopping virus, and Indian site Zee News says Jararacussu pit viper, found in Brazil, can be the answer to Coronavirus, says study.

The research paper is here.

Researchers in Brazil were already studying the properties of a fragment of a protein from the venom of the jararacussu, a South American pit viper. This fragment blocks a protease, a protein-snipping enzyme, that is needed by the SARS-Cov-2 virus.  The protein fragment isn’t a drug on its own — and the protein it comes from definitely isn’t; it’s in the snake venom for a reason, and that reason isn’t to benefit animals that get bitten. However, this genuinely is one of the ways we get new drugs. A protein fragment from the venom of a related South America pit viper, which blocked a human protease enzyme,  was the starting point for developing ACE inhibitors, an important class of medications for high blood pressure and heart failure.

A few more things to  point out, though. First, the research paper is studying the ability of the SARS-Cov-2 virus to infect lab-grown hamster kidney cells in a Petri dish. These aren’t particularly realistic targets; they’re just convenient. The paper describes the use of a ‘positive control’, a chemical that they know is effective at stopping infection of these hamster cells under lab conditions. You might have heard of this chemical; it’s called chloroquine.  And finally, the tweet from The Hill that pushed me to write this post has a picture of a pretty green snake. It’s not the jararacussu. It’s an African snake that’s not especially closely related and whose venom hasn’t been studied all that much. They have the picture handy because a snake of that species bit a handler at the San Diego zoo in April. Zee News also use a pretty green snake picture, and it’s even less closely related.