Top 14 Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.88 | 6.83 | 1.10 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.57 | 6.13 | 0.40 |
| La Rochelle | 6.29 | 6.78 | -0.50 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 5.60 | 5.42 | 0.20 |
| Lyon Rugby | 5.05 | 4.15 | 0.90 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 4.24 | 5.09 | -0.90 |
| RC Toulonnais | 1.59 | 1.82 | -0.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.04 | 0.94 | 0.10 |
| Montpellier | 0.76 | -0.01 | 0.80 |
| Stade Francais Paris | -0.67 | 1.20 | -1.90 |
| Section Paloise | -2.18 | -2.25 | 0.10 |
| Biarritz | -2.27 | -2.78 | 0.50 |
| Brive | -2.71 | -3.19 | 0.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.81 | -2.78 | -1.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biarritz vs. Racing-Metro 92 | Sep 18 | 28 – 19 | -3.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Section Paloise | Sep 18 | 30 – 13 | 5.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles | Sep 18 | 23 – 23 | 2.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Lyon Rugby vs. USA Perpignan | Sep 18 | 47 – 3 | 13.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain | Sep 19 | 15 – 17 | -0.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle | Sep 19 | 23 – 22 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris | Sep 20 | 38 – 5 | 7.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Brive | Sep 25 | Bordeaux-Begles | 14.80 |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Biarritz | Sep 25 | La Rochelle | 15.10 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Sep 25 | Section Paloise | 3.60 |
| 4 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique | Sep 25 | Stade Francais Paris | 4.80 |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby | Sep 26 | Racing-Metro 92 | 8.00 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. RC Toulonnais | Sep 26 | USA Perpignan | 1.10 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne | Sep 27 | Stade Toulousain | 10.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »