Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The NPC site calls this round Updated Week 3, but it is the original Round 7, less games involving the three Auckland teams. Game times are much the same, and sticking with original round names is easiest for my data.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasman | 11.35 | 10.71 | 0.60 |
| Auckland | 8.62 | 7.95 | 0.70 |
| Wellington | 7.15 | 5.62 | 1.50 |
| Bay of Plenty | 5.07 | 5.20 | -0.10 |
| Canterbury | 4.57 | 6.44 | -1.90 |
| Waikato | 4.41 | 2.52 | 1.90 |
| North Harbour | 4.04 | 5.75 | -1.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 3.75 | 4.07 | -0.30 |
| Taranaki | -1.10 | -4.52 | 3.40 |
| Otago | -4.74 | -3.47 | -1.30 |
| Northland | -9.00 | -4.75 | -4.20 |
| Southland | -10.73 | -10.39 | -0.30 |
| Counties Manukau | -11.10 | -10.22 | -0.90 |
| Manawatu | -12.13 | -14.72 | 2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour | Aug 13 | 6 – 14 | -12.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Aug 14 | 16 – 11 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago | Aug 14 | 34 – 10 | 10.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Manawatu | Aug 14 | 25 – 22 | 22.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Southland vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 15 | 11 – 31 | -11.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Waikato vs. Wellington | Aug 15 | 43 – 37 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Aug 15 | 14 – 48 | -0.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waikato vs. Canterbury | Sep 17 | Waikato | 3.30 |
| 2 | Taranaki vs. Wellington | Sep 18 | Wellington | -4.70 |
| 3 | Northland vs. Tasman | Sep 18 | Tasman | -16.80 |
| 4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 19 | Hawke’s Bay | 2.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »