Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter Chiefs | 7.35 | 7.35 | 0.00 |
| Wasps | 5.66 | 5.66 | -0.00 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.96 | 4.96 | -0.00 |
| Bath | 2.14 | 2.14 | 0.00 |
| Bristol | 1.28 | 1.28 | -0.00 |
| Gloucester | -1.02 | -1.02 | 0.00 |
| Harlequins | -1.08 | -1.08 | -0.00 |
| Northampton Saints | -2.48 | -2.48 | 0.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -3.52 | -3.52 | -0.00 |
| Saracens | -5.00 | -5.00 | 0.00 |
| Worcester Warriors | -5.71 | -5.71 | 0.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | -6.14 | -6.14 | -0.00 |
| London Irish | -8.05 | -8.05 | -0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Saracens | Sep 18 | Bristol | 10.80 |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs | Sep 19 | Exeter Chiefs | -9.00 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester | Sep 19 | Northampton Saints | 3.00 |
| 4 | Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish | Sep 19 | Worcester Warriors | 6.80 |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Bath | Sep 19 | Sale Sharks | 7.30 |
| 6 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins | Sep 20 | Newcastle Falcons | 2.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »