August 4, 2021
Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 5.22 | 5.14 | 0.10 |
| Sharks | 5.08 | 5.19 | -0.10 |
| Western Province | 2.16 | 3.28 | -1.10 |
| Lions | 0.99 | 3.74 | -2.80 |
| Cheetahs | -3.12 | -2.17 | -0.90 |
| Pumas | -4.18 | -5.67 | 1.50 |
| Griquas | -6.14 | -9.50 | 3.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Pumas | Jul 30 | 33 – 36 | 9.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Western Province vs. Bulls | Jul 31 | 13 – 34 | 1.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | Sharks vs. Griquas | Jul 31 | 27 – 37 | 16.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griquas vs. Lions | Aug 06 | Lions | -4.10 |
| 2 | Bulls vs. Sharks | Aug 07 | Bulls | 3.10 |
| 3 | Western Province vs. Cheetahs | Aug 07 | Western Province | 8.30 |