NRL Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Storm | 22.30 | 14.53 | 7.80 |
Rabbitohs | 14.84 | 7.73 | 7.10 |
Sea Eagles | 12.90 | -4.77 | 17.70 |
Panthers | 10.91 | 8.88 | 2.00 |
Roosters | 5.55 | 10.25 | -4.70 |
Eels | 1.22 | 1.68 | -0.50 |
Raiders | -0.65 | 6.98 | -7.60 |
Titans | -2.69 | -7.22 | 4.50 |
Sharks | -4.38 | -0.76 | -3.60 |
Warriors | -4.87 | -1.84 | -3.00 |
Wests Tigers | -5.02 | -3.07 | -2.00 |
Knights | -5.32 | -2.61 | -2.70 |
Dragons | -8.37 | -4.95 | -3.40 |
Broncos | -10.32 | -11.16 | 0.80 |
Cowboys | -12.71 | -8.05 | -4.70 |
Bulldogs | -15.39 | -7.62 | -7.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Storm vs. Raiders | Aug 12 | 26 – 16 | 25.70 | TRUE |
2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Aug 13 | 16 – 34 | -19.60 | TRUE |
3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Aug 13 | 20 – 21 | -15.40 | TRUE |
4 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Aug 14 | 36 – 6 | 11.30 | TRUE |
5 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 14 | 16 – 24 | -7.60 | TRUE |
6 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Aug 14 | 56 – 10 | 4.80 | TRUE |
7 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Aug 15 | 24 – 10 | 9.70 | TRUE |
8 | Sharks vs. Knights | Aug 15 | 14 – 16 | 1.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Titans vs. Storm | Aug 19 | Storm | -22.00 |
2 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 20 | Sea Eagles | -13.60 |
3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 20 | Rabbitohs | -3.90 |
4 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Aug 21 | Sharks | -0.60 |
5 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Aug 21 | Knights | -10.10 |
6 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Aug 21 | Eels | 13.90 |
7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Aug 22 | Roosters | -13.90 |
8 | Broncos vs. Warriors | Aug 22 | Warriors | -2.40 |