August 31, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 5.83 5.14 0.70
Sharks 5.55 5.19 0.40
Western Province 1.87 3.28 -1.40
Lions -1.88 3.74 -5.60
Cheetahs -2.70 -2.17 -0.50
Pumas -3.31 -5.67 2.40
Griquas -5.36 -9.50 4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 28 13 – 13 1.20 FALSE
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 39 – 36 12.40 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 29 24 – 35 8.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Griquas Sep 04 Sharks 13.90
2 Bulls vs. Western Province Sep 04 Bulls 7.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »