August 24, 2021

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.26 5.14 1.10
Sharks 6.26 5.19 1.10
Western Province 1.17 3.28 -2.10
Lions -1.88 3.74 -5.60
Cheetahs -3.13 -2.17 -1.00
Pumas -3.41 -5.67 2.30
Griquas -5.26 -9.50 4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 21 46 – 25 -5.20 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 21 28 – 19 2.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 22 14 – 56 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 28 Griquas 1.20
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 Bulls 12.40
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 29 Sharks 8.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »