NRL Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 22.30 | 14.53 | 7.80 |
| Rabbitohs | 14.84 | 7.73 | 7.10 |
| Sea Eagles | 12.90 | -4.77 | 17.70 |
| Panthers | 10.91 | 8.88 | 2.00 |
| Roosters | 5.55 | 10.25 | -4.70 |
| Eels | 1.22 | 1.68 | -0.50 |
| Raiders | -0.65 | 6.98 | -7.60 |
| Titans | -2.69 | -7.22 | 4.50 |
| Sharks | -4.38 | -0.76 | -3.60 |
| Warriors | -4.87 | -1.84 | -3.00 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.02 | -3.07 | -2.00 |
| Knights | -5.32 | -2.61 | -2.70 |
| Dragons | -8.37 | -4.95 | -3.40 |
| Broncos | -10.32 | -11.16 | 0.80 |
| Cowboys | -12.71 | -8.05 | -4.70 |
| Bulldogs | -15.39 | -7.62 | -7.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Raiders | Aug 12 | 26 – 16 | 25.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Aug 13 | 16 – 34 | -19.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Aug 13 | 20 – 21 | -15.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Aug 14 | 36 – 6 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 14 | 16 – 24 | -7.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Aug 14 | 56 – 10 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Aug 15 | 24 – 10 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Knights | Aug 15 | 14 – 16 | 1.60 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans vs. Storm | Aug 19 | Storm | -22.00 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 20 | Sea Eagles | -13.60 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 20 | Rabbitohs | -3.90 |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Sharks | Aug 21 | Sharks | -0.60 |
| 5 | Bulldogs vs. Knights | Aug 21 | Knights | -10.10 |
| 6 | Eels vs. Cowboys | Aug 21 | Eels | 13.90 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Roosters | Aug 22 | Roosters | -13.90 |
| 8 | Broncos vs. Warriors | Aug 22 | Warriors | -2.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Please send every Statschat tips for every rugby games via my email. Appreciate your kind help. Thanks
3 years ago
I have had this request a few times but the answer is always the same, I don’t do that. I try to post at around the same time each week, on Tuesday morning NZ time. Either check on a Tuesday, or use an alerting system for when I post. I am not sure how that is done but clearly many people do get alerts because within minutes of my posting a prediction I can see that 15 or more people have viewed the post, and that number rises pretty quickly.
3 years ago