Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12
Team Ratings for Round 12
I missed predicting Round 11 last week, because of two games being played in the week. Same again this week it seems so I will give predictions for Round 13 after the completion of the Round 12 games.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulls | 6.26 | 5.14 | 1.10 |
| Sharks | 5.08 | 5.19 | -0.10 |
| Western Province | 1.38 | 3.28 | -1.90 |
| Lions | -0.04 | 3.74 | -3.80 |
| Cheetahs | -2.46 | -2.17 | -0.30 |
| Pumas | -3.76 | -5.67 | 1.90 |
| Griquas | -6.46 | -9.50 | 3.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 26 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Province vs. Pumas | Aug 14 | 40 – 40 | 9.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Aug 14 | 38 – 31 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Bulls | Aug 15 | 21 – 48 | -1.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 12
Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pumas vs. Bulls | Aug 18 | Bulls | -7.00 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Griquas | Aug 18 | Cheetahs | 7.00 |
| 3 | Western Province vs. Lions | Aug 19 | Western Province | 4.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »