NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
These predictions are preliminary only, because game locations are mainly listed as TBA. The only games on the NRL site with an actual location are the home games for the Broncos and Cowboys. Yesterday the NRL even had the Warriors playing at home in Auckland, so uncertainty abounds. I have treated all the TBA listed games as being played on neutral grounds, except the Rabbitohs versus Titans which I have predicted as if it were a home game for the Titans.
I will update later in the week if things change.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 23.66 | 14.53 | 9.10 |
| Rabbitohs | 13.22 | 7.73 | 5.50 |
| Panthers | 11.07 | 8.88 | 2.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 9.49 | -4.77 | 14.30 |
| Roosters | 6.81 | 10.25 | -3.40 |
| Eels | 4.64 | 1.68 | 3.00 |
| Titans | -1.07 | -7.22 | 6.20 |
| Raiders | -2.02 | 6.98 | -9.00 |
| Sharks | -4.05 | -0.76 | -3.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.06 | -3.07 | -2.00 |
| Warriors | -5.27 | -1.84 | -3.40 |
| Knights | -5.66 | -2.61 | -3.10 |
| Dragons | -8.53 | -4.95 | -3.60 |
| Broncos | -11.58 | -11.16 | -0.40 |
| Cowboys | -12.67 | -8.05 | -4.60 |
| Bulldogs | -14.99 | -7.62 | -7.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Broncos | Aug 05 | 28 – 20 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Aug 06 | 20 – 12 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 06 | 12 – 40 | -4.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Aug 07 | 18 – 16 | -2.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Aug 07 | 14 – 20 | -3.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Aug 07 | 18 – 28 | -15.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 08 | 16 – 28 | -9.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Aug 08 | 36 – 14 | 13.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Storm vs. Raiders | Aug 12 | Storm | 25.70 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Panthers | Aug 13 | Panthers | -19.60 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Aug 13 | Roosters | -15.40 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Aug 14 | Rabbitohs | 11.30 |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 14 | Wests Tigers | -7.60 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Aug 14 | Sea Eagles | 4.80 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Aug 15 | Warriors | 9.70 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Knights | Aug 15 | Sharks | 1.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »