Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
I got caught again this week with the Sharks versus Bulls game, which was originally listed to be a home game for the Bulls, but in fact was played in Durban. I think it was thus the Round 6 game. I have changed the prediction to reflect the reality of where the game was played so that my ratings are properly updated for future predictions.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 5.32 | 5.19 | 0.10 |
| Bulls | 4.98 | 5.14 | -0.20 |
| Western Province | 1.80 | 3.28 | -1.50 |
| Lions | 0.88 | 3.74 | -2.90 |
| Cheetahs | -2.76 | -2.17 | -0.60 |
| Pumas | -4.18 | -5.67 | 1.50 |
| Griquas | -6.04 | -9.50 | 3.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griquas vs. Lions | Aug 06 | 42 – 45 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Bulls | Aug 07 | 35 – 28 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Western Province vs. Cheetahs | Aug 07 | 40 – 39 | 8.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pumas vs. Sharks | Aug 11 | Sharks | -6.50 |
| 2 | Bulls vs. Griquas | Aug 11 | Bulls | 14.00 |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Lions | Aug 12 | Lions | -0.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »