NRL Predictions for Round 21
Team Ratings for Round 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 24.13 | 14.53 | 9.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 11.22 | 7.73 | 3.50 |
| Panthers | 10.86 | 8.88 | 2.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 9.02 | -4.77 | 13.80 |
| Roosters | 7.02 | 10.25 | -3.20 |
| Eels | 6.64 | 1.68 | 5.00 |
| Titans | -1.88 | -7.22 | 5.30 |
| Raiders | -2.20 | 6.98 | -9.20 |
| Sharks | -3.68 | -0.76 | -2.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.32 | -3.07 | -2.30 |
| Warriors | -5.64 | -1.84 | -3.80 |
| Knights | -5.92 | -2.61 | -3.30 |
| Dragons | -8.34 | -4.95 | -3.40 |
| Broncos | -11.32 | -11.16 | -0.20 |
| Cowboys | -11.86 | -8.05 | -3.80 |
| Bulldogs | -14.73 | -7.62 | -7.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Eels | Jul 29 | 28 – 0 | -5.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Jul 30 | 16 – 18 | 0.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Jul 30 | 37 – 18 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 31 | 14 – 50 | -16.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Knights vs. Raiders | Jul 31 | 34 – 24 | -6.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Storm vs. Panthers | Jul 31 | 37 – 10 | 10.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Aug 01 | 6 – 34 | -13.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 01 | 22 – 40 | -11.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 21
Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Broncos | Aug 05 | Knights | 5.40 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Aug 06 | Raiders | 6.10 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 06 | Rabbitohs | -4.60 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Sharks | Aug 07 | Sharks | -2.00 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Panthers | Aug 07 | Panthers | -3.80 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Aug 07 | Storm | -15.10 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 08 | Wests Tigers | -9.40 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Aug 08 | Titans | 13.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »