NRL Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 22.69 | 14.53 | 8.20 |
| Panthers | 12.30 | 8.88 | 3.40 |
| Rabbitohs | 9.52 | 7.73 | 1.80 |
| Eels | 9.43 | 1.68 | 7.70 |
| Sea Eagles | 8.42 | -4.77 | 13.20 |
| Roosters | 4.24 | 10.25 | -6.00 |
| Raiders | -0.76 | 6.98 | -7.70 |
| Sharks | -3.08 | -0.76 | -2.30 |
| Titans | -3.17 | -7.22 | 4.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -5.03 | -3.07 | -2.00 |
| Warriors | -5.93 | -1.84 | -4.10 |
| Dragons | -6.63 | -4.95 | -1.70 |
| Knights | -7.36 | -2.61 | -4.80 |
| Cowboys | -10.24 | -8.05 | -2.20 |
| Broncos | -12.93 | -11.16 | -1.80 |
| Bulldogs | -13.45 | -7.62 | -5.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Raiders | Jul 22 | 10 – 12 | 12.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Knights | Jul 23 | 28 – 8 | 9.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Jul 23 | 16 – 20 | -35.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Warriors | Jul 24 | 60 – 22 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 24 | 44 – 24 | 12.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Jul 24 | 18 – 12 | 25.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Titans | Jul 25 | 10 – 32 | -3.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jul 25 | 24 – 44 | -8.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Eels | Jul 29 | Eels | -5.20 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Jul 30 | Wests Tigers | 0.90 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Jul 30 | Broncos | 0.30 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 31 | Rabbitohs | -16.10 |
| 5 | Knights vs. Raiders | Jul 31 | Raiders | -6.60 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Panthers | Jul 31 | Storm | 10.40 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | Aug 01 | Titans | -13.30 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 01 | Sea Eagles | -11.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »