Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
A note concerning treatment of cancelled games, or where a 0-0 score is allocated. I delete any cancelled games from my database, but also any games with an awarded result. That is because awarded result games will almost always cause an adjustment to my ratings which is not justifiable.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 5.45 | 5.19 | 0.30 |
| Bulls | 3.85 | 5.14 | -1.30 |
| Western Province | 3.25 | 3.28 | -0.00 |
| Lions | 2.91 | 3.74 | -0.80 |
| Cheetahs | -3.36 | -2.17 | -1.20 |
| Pumas | -4.24 | -5.67 | 1.40 |
| Griquas | -7.85 | -9.50 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Province vs. Griquas | Jul 07 | 28 – 30 | 15.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Pumas | Jul 09 | 17 – 16 | 4.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Pumas | Jul 17 | Sharks | 12.70 |
| 2 | Griquas vs. Bulls | Jul 17 | Bulls | -8.70 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Cheetahs | Jul 17 | Lions | 9.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Can I ask why no predictions for the Lions series in South Africa?
3 years ago
Pretty much impossible to predict statistically because there is no relevant recent data. The Lions last tour was to New Zealand in 2017, and they last played South Africa as far as I can tell in 2009. They have played some recent warmup games, but not against a top class test side. Those warmup games are likely being used to try out players and combinations, without their best team being on the park.
3 years ago
Ah ok that makes sense. Thanks for the reply.
3 years ago