June 22, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 21.12 14.53 6.60
Panthers 15.10 8.88 6.20
Eels 9.41 1.68 7.70
Rabbitohs 7.38 7.73 -0.40
Roosters 6.73 10.25 -3.50
Sea Eagles 6.04 -4.77 10.80
Sharks -1.46 -0.76 -0.70
Raiders -2.50 6.98 -9.50
Warriors -3.73 -1.84 -1.90
Dragons -4.75 -4.95 0.20
Wests Tigers -4.83 -3.07 -1.80
Knights -7.98 -2.61 -5.40
Titans -8.02 -7.22 -0.80
Cowboys -9.26 -8.05 -1.20
Bulldogs -10.15 -7.62 -2.50
Broncos -15.09 -11.16 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 17 0 – 46 -14.10 TRUE
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 18 24 – 26 -5.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 18 38 – 12 8.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 19 10 – 6 -2.40 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Jun 19 22 – 20 0.40 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 66 – 16 24.60 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 20 36 – 10 21.80 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 24 – 56 -6.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 01 Storm -11.40
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 02 Dragons -2.00
3 Panthers vs. Eels Jul 02 Panthers 8.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jul 03 Sea Eagles -13.20
5 Raiders vs. Titans Jul 03 Raiders 8.50
6 Knights vs. Cowboys Jul 03 Knights 4.30
7 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 Sharks -10.60
8 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 04 Rabbitohs -9.20

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    ABSOLOM KAISIN

    How can i calculate the predicted score for tonight’s NRL match between Storms and Roosters?

    3 years ago