June 15, 2021

NRL Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 18.96 14.53 4.40
Panthers 13.56 8.88 4.70
Eels 9.02 1.68 7.30
Roosters 8.27 10.25 -2.00
Rabbitohs 4.69 7.73 -3.00
Sea Eagles 3.89 -4.77 8.70
Sharks -1.13 -0.76 -0.40
Raiders -2.35 6.98 -9.30
Wests Tigers -2.67 -3.07 0.40
Warriors -3.14 -1.84 -1.30
Dragons -4.91 -4.95 0.00
Titans -5.87 -7.22 1.40
Knights -8.57 -2.61 -6.00
Cowboys -9.59 -8.05 -1.50
Bulldogs -9.76 -7.62 -2.10
Broncos -12.41 -11.16 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 11 50 – 18 13.20 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Panthers Jun 11 19 – 18 -14.40 FALSE
3 Titans vs. Roosters Jun 12 34 – 35 -13.30 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jun 12 24 – 10 16.80 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 12 38 – 16 11.10 TRUE
6 Warriors vs. Storm Jun 13 16 – 42 -21.20 TRUE
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Jun 13 40 – 12 11.90 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 14 28 – 6 -6.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 17 Rabbitohs -14.10
2 Cowboys vs. Sharks Jun 18 Sharks -5.50
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jun 18 Panthers 8.30
4 Knights vs. Warriors Jun 19 Warriors -2.40
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Jun 19 Dragons 0.40
6 Storm vs. Wests Tigers Jun 19 Storm 24.60
7 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 20 Eels 21.80
8 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 Sea Eagles -6.80

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »