June 8, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.30 2.32 5.00
Racing-Metro 92 7.05 6.21 0.80
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 5.54 3.22 2.30
Bordeaux-Begles 4.65 2.83 1.80
Lyon Rugby 4.55 5.61 -1.10
RC Toulonnais 1.91 3.56 -1.70
Stade Francais Paris 1.59 -3.22 4.80
Castres Olympique 1.29 -0.47 1.80
Montpellier 0.52 2.30 -1.80
Section Paloise -2.55 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.29 -3.26 -0.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.82 -4.13 -1.70
SU Agen -19.21 -4.72 -14.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 127 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 06 9 – 12 -1.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 06 10 – 21 4.20 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Jun 06 46 – 24 3.60 TRUE
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle Jun 06 25 – 20 3.50 TRUE
5 Lyon Rugby vs. SU Agen Jun 06 52 – 7 28.10 TRUE
6 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Jun 06 55 – 12 14.10 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Jun 06 41 – 25 1.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris Jun 12 Racing-Metro 92 11.00
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jun 12 Bordeaux-Begles 4.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »