Top 14 Predictions for Round 26
Team Ratings for Round 26
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.41 | 2.32 | 5.10 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.49 | 4.80 | 1.70 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 6.18 | 6.21 | -0.00 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.44 | 3.22 | 2.20 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 5.18 | 2.83 | 2.40 |
| Lyon Rugby | 3.97 | 5.61 | -1.60 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.54 | 3.56 | -1.00 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 1.50 | -3.22 | 4.70 |
| Montpellier | 1.04 | 2.30 | -1.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.67 | -0.47 | 1.10 |
| Brive | -2.41 | -3.26 | 0.90 |
| Section Paloise | -3.08 | -4.48 | 1.40 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -5.73 | -4.13 | -1.60 |
| SU Agen | -18.62 | -4.72 | -13.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 175 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby | May 29 | 46 – 27 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Castres Olympique | May 30 | 28 – 33 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise | May 30 | 51 – 27 | 15.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 30 | 23 – 19 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles | May 30 | 25 – 19 | 2.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne | May 30 | 36 – 27 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 30 | 14 – 54 | -17.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 26
Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris | Jun 06 | Stade Francais Paris | -1.70 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Jun 06 | Bordeaux-Begles | 4.20 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais | Jun 06 | Castres Olympique | 3.60 |
| 4 | Clermont Auvergne vs. La Rochelle | Jun 06 | Clermont Auvergne | 3.50 |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. SU Agen | Jun 06 | Lyon Rugby | 28.10 |
| 6 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive | Jun 06 | Racing-Metro 92 | 14.10 |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Jun 06 | Section Paloise | 1.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »