Posts from May 2021 (22)

May 14, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
La Rochelle 6.12 2.32 3.80
Clermont Auvergne 5.63 3.22 2.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.19 6.21 -1.00
Lyon Rugby 4.16 5.61 -1.50
Bordeaux-Begles 3.76 2.83 0.90
Montpellier 3.18 2.30 0.90
RC Toulonnais 2.29 3.56 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris 0.26 -3.22 3.50
Castres Olympique -0.03 -0.47 0.40
Brive -1.68 -3.26 1.60
Section Paloise -2.45 -4.48 2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.84 -4.13 -2.70
SU Agen -16.06 -4.72 -11.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 159 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais May 12 29 – 10 5.40 TRUE
2 Brive vs. La Rochelle May 12 24 – 12 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 May 15 Racing-Metro 92 -2.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique May 16 Bordeaux-Begles 9.30
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais May 16 Clermont Auvergne 8.80
4 La Rochelle vs. SU Agen May 16 La Rochelle 27.70
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Brive May 16 Lyon Rugby 11.30
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier May 16 Stade Francais Paris 2.60
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais May 16 Stade Toulousain 19.40

 

May 11, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

Another unusual week. There are two midweek games and the teams involved will be playing later in the week as well. I will give predictions for the weekend games after obtaining the results for the two midweek games.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
La Rochelle 6.67 2.32 4.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.63 3.22 2.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.19 6.21 -1.00
Lyon Rugby 4.16 5.61 -1.50
Bordeaux-Begles 3.76 2.83 0.90
RC Toulonnais 2.79 3.56 -0.80
Montpellier 2.69 2.30 0.40
Stade Francais Paris 0.26 -3.22 3.50
Castres Olympique -0.03 -0.47 0.40
Brive -2.23 -3.26 1.00
Section Paloise -2.45 -4.48 2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.84 -4.13 -2.70
SU Agen -16.06 -4.72 -11.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 157 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby May 08 37 – 29 0.20 TRUE
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 09 22 – 47 -3.70 TRUE
3 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris May 09 28 – 31 4.00 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 09 32 – 22 0.80 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne May 09 45 – 19 3.60 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain May 09 44 – 10 -0.80 FALSE
7 SU Agen vs. Section Paloise May 09 7 – 47 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais May 12 Montpellier 5.40
2 Brive vs. La Rochelle May 12 La Rochelle -3.40

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

Just a note concerning the ratings this week. There have been no games between Australian and New Zealand sides since early in 2020. The ratings below started off from the ratings after the last of those games and have been updated based on games in Super Rugby Aotearoa and Super Rugby Australia in 2020 and 2021. Caution is needed about the ratings for this next series of Super Rugby games because of this ratings history. I chose not to shrink the previous ratings before the start of this series of games which is something I usually do to a minor extent between seasons.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.57 14.49 0.10
Blues 7.68 7.80 -0.10
Hurricanes 6.55 7.13 -0.60
Chiefs 4.58 4.38 0.20
Brumbies 3.32 1.47 1.80
Highlanders 3.11 2.70 0.40
Reds 2.62 1.59 1.00
Rebels -4.40 -3.51 -0.90
Waratahs -8.87 -5.02 -3.80
Western Force -11.18 -13.05 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 08 24 – 13 16.10 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies May 08 19 – 16 5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds May 14 Highlanders 7.00
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes May 14 Hurricanes -8.90
3 Crusaders vs. Brumbies May 15 Crusaders 17.80
4 Rebels vs. Blues May 15 Blues -5.60
5 Western Force vs. Chiefs May 15 Chiefs -9.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.59 7.35 0.20
Bristol 5.01 1.28 3.70
Harlequins 3.82 -1.08 4.90
Sale Sharks 3.45 4.96 -1.50
Northampton Saints -0.20 -2.48 2.30
Wasps -0.81 5.66 -6.50
Gloucester -1.02 -1.02 0.00
Bath -2.89 2.14 -5.00
Leicester Tigers -4.08 -6.14 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.88 -10.00 3.10
London Irish -6.97 -8.05 1.10
Worcester Warriors -10.11 -5.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 08 26 – 10 11.40 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Bristol May 09 20 – 40 -1.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors May 09 41 – 10 21.10 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish May 09 52 – 27 2.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 09 7 – 31 8.40 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Wasps May 10 48 – 46 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks May 15 Sale Sharks -1.80
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 16 Harlequins -3.40
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors May 16 Wasps 13.80
4 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 18 Bristol 10.50
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints May 18 Northampton Saints -2.20
6 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Exeter Chiefs -10.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

I have adjusted these predictions now because I see that all games are being played at Suncorp Stadium. The home ground advantage values have been changed for all but the Warriors versus the Eels.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 20.30 14.53 5.80
Panthers 14.26 8.88 5.40
Roosters 12.71 10.25 2.50
Eels 9.32 1.68 7.60
Rabbitohs 6.61 7.73 -1.10
Raiders -0.53 6.98 -7.50
Warriors -1.93 -1.84 -0.10
Sea Eagles -2.37 -4.77 2.40
Dragons -2.80 -4.95 2.20
Sharks -4.41 -0.76 -3.60
Knights -4.80 -2.61 -2.20
Titans -5.92 -7.22 1.30
Wests Tigers -7.75 -3.07 -4.70
Broncos -10.30 -11.16 0.90
Cowboys -10.58 -8.05 -2.50
Bulldogs -13.82 -7.62 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 06 0 – 50 -2.90 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks May 07 48 – 0 16.30 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters May 07 31 – 18 -3.20 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Knights May 08 16 – 24 10.50 FALSE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans May 08 28 – 36 3.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 08 19 – 18 3.10 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors May 09 38 – 32 1.80 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 09 32 – 12 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Knights May 14 Knights -3.00
2 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles May 14 Sea Eagles -4.90
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 15 Raiders -13.30
4 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs May 15 Rabbitohs -11.00
5 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 15 Roosters 23.30
6 Warriors vs. Eels May 16 Eels -11.20
7 Storm vs. Dragons May 16 Storm 26.10
8 Titans vs. Panthers May 16 Panthers -17.20

 

May 7, 2021

Mind if we call you ‘Bruce’?

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From news.com.au (via @LewSOS and @Economissive on Twitter) “The names of Australians most likely to win the lotto have been revealed, with the top three taking home more than a quarter of the prizes last year.”

What they actually have for ‘names’ is first initials. Apparently, more than a quarter of first-division prizes last year were won by people whose names started with “J”, “A”, or “D”.  Of course, people whose names start with these letters are not any more likely to win lotto if they buy tickets. Either more people in this category bought tickets than average (in which case it would be truer to say they are more likely to lose Lotto), or the distribution of initials is pretty much the same as for the country as a whole.

The story does go on to say that name and age can’t affect your chance of winning, but not to explain why, given that, it’s news.

Anyway, since Rob Hyndman and the stats group at Monash have put together a database of frequencies of Australian names, we can see how representative the winners are.  Here are the proportion of Oz babies born each year (up to current 18-year-olds) whose names begin with “J”, “A”, or “D”. As you can see, it’s “more than a quarter” almost every year where we have data.

Since you’re a StatsChat reader, you can probably think of reasons there might be a difference between Lotto name frequencies and baby name frequencies.  The baby names don’t include immigrants and do include emigrants.  There might be ethnic differences in propensity to play Lotto that happen to be correlated with first initial. There might be quite large chance differences because the lottery folks only looked at first-division winners, a very small (but random) sample of Lotto players. But it doesn’t look like we need to go there.

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May 4, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 4.80 3.20
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.35 3.22 3.10
Lyon Rugby 4.71 5.61 -0.90
Racing-Metro 92 4.47 6.21 -1.70
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 1.78 3.56 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -0.23 -3.22 3.00
Castres Olympique -0.58 -0.47 -0.10
Brive -1.74 -3.26 1.50
Section Paloise -3.43 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.14 -4.13 -2.00
SU Agen -15.08 -4.72 -10.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Apr 30 23 – 26 0.40 FALSE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive May 02 37 – 27 14.20 TRUE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris May 02 29 – 35 11.40 FALSE
4 RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen May 02 34 – 17 23.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby May 08 Castres Olympique 0.20
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 09 Bordeaux-Begles -3.70
3 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris May 09 Brive 4.00
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 09 Montpellier 0.80
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne May 09 Racing-Metro 92 3.60
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain May 09 Stade Toulousain -0.80
7 SU Agen vs. Section Paloise May 09 Section Paloise -6.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

Another week where there were postponed games that eluded me. I have included these forecasts for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 4.80 3.20
La Rochelle 7.04 2.32 4.70
Clermont Auvergne 6.64 3.22 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.07 6.21 -1.10
Lyon Rugby 4.71 5.61 -0.90
Bordeaux-Begles 3.07 2.83 0.20
Montpellier 2.31 2.30 0.00
RC Toulonnais 2.22 3.56 -1.30
Castres Olympique -0.82 -0.47 -0.30
Stade Francais Paris -0.83 -3.22 2.40
Brive -2.03 -3.26 1.20
Section Paloise -3.43 -4.48 1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -15.51 -4.72 -10.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon Rugby vs. Clermont Auvergne Apr 25 41 – 30 2.90 TRUE
2 Stade Francais Paris vs. Section Paloise Apr 25 46 – 32 7.10 TRUE
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing-Metro 92 Apr 25 34 – 16 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Apr 30 Aviron Bayonnais 0.40
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Brive May 02 Clermont Auvergne 14.20
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Francais Paris May 02 Racing-Metro 92 11.40
4 RC Toulonnais vs. SU Agen May 02 RC Toulonnais 23.20

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.88 14.49 0.40
Blues 7.68 7.80 -0.10
Hurricanes 6.55 7.13 -0.60
Chiefs 4.27 4.38 -0.10
Brumbies 3.19 1.47 1.70
Highlanders 3.11 2.70 0.40
Reds 2.75 1.59 1.20
Rebels -4.40 -3.51 -0.90
Waratahs -8.87 -5.02 -3.80
Western Force -11.18 -13.05 1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders Apr 30 41 – 22 8.10 TRUE
2 Blues vs. Chiefs May 01 39 – 19 8.00 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 01 21 – 9 20.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 08 Crusaders 16.10
2 Reds vs. Brumbies May 08 Reds 5.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 16.41 14.53 1.90
Roosters 14.12 10.25 3.90
Panthers 11.60 8.88 2.70
Rabbitohs 10.50 7.73 2.80
Eels 7.91 1.68 6.20
Raiders 1.07 6.98 -5.90
Warriors -1.53 -1.84 0.30
Sharks -1.75 -0.76 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.76 -4.77 2.00
Dragons -3.46 -4.95 1.50
Knights -6.39 -2.61 -3.80
Wests Tigers -6.76 -3.07 -3.70
Titans -6.91 -7.22 0.30
Cowboys -10.36 -8.05 -2.30
Broncos -10.51 -11.16 0.60
Bulldogs -13.16 -7.62 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Apr 29 20 – 34 -4.80 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Sharks Apr 30 40 – 14 20.10 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 30 36 – 28 -2.50 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles May 01 28 – 16 18.60 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Eels May 01 10 – 32 -17.20 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Roosters May 01 4 – 38 -14.10 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 02 24 – 20 9.90 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers May 02 8 – 16 9.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Storm May 06 Storm -2.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks May 07 Panthers 16.30
3 Eels vs. Roosters May 07 Roosters -3.20
4 Raiders vs. Knights May 08 Raiders 10.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans May 08 Wests Tigers 3.10
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 08 Cowboys 3.10
7 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors May 09 Sea Eagles 1.80
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs May 09 Dragons 12.70

 

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