Top 14 Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.05 | 2.32 | 4.70 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.29 | 4.80 | 1.50 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.64 | 3.22 | 2.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.46 | 6.21 | -0.80 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 5.44 | 2.83 | 2.60 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.56 | 5.61 | -1.10 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.28 | 3.56 | -1.30 |
| Montpellier | 1.40 | 2.30 | -0.90 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.91 | -3.22 | 4.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.34 | -0.47 | 0.80 |
| Brive | -2.08 | -3.26 | 1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -2.72 | -4.48 | 1.80 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.09 | -4.13 | -2.00 |
| SU Agen | -17.91 | -4.72 | -13.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 168 matches played, 115 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles | May 22 | 3 – 49 | -14.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier | May 26 | 57 – 9 | 7.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby | May 29 | Stade Francais Paris | 1.80 |
| 2 | Brive vs. Castres Olympique | May 30 | Brive | 3.10 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise | May 30 | La Rochelle | 15.30 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 30 | Montpellier | 13.00 |
| 5 | RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles | May 30 | RC Toulonnais | 2.30 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Auvergne | May 30 | Stade Toulousain | 6.20 |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 30 | Racing-Metro 92 | -17.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »