Pro 14 Rainbow Cup Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
These predictions come with a caveat. I have done them mainly with a view to updating my ratings for the Pro 14 teams and in particular the South African Super Rugby teams. Having done them, I thought I might as well publish them from now on. The initial ratings are derived from the end of the Pro 14 and Super Rugby Unlocked competitions. Even though there are really two separate competitions it is convenient to lump them together because that is how the fixtures and results are available on the internet.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.63 | 15.74 | -1.10 |
| Munster | 10.31 | 9.13 | 1.20 |
| Ulster | 8.27 | 8.77 | -0.50 |
| Bulls | 3.72 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
| Connacht | 2.93 | 2.50 | 0.40 |
| Glasgow Warriors | 2.74 | 2.64 | 0.10 |
| Edinburgh | 1.73 | 3.48 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 0.72 | 1.16 | -0.40 |
| Cardiff Blues | 0.19 | 0.73 | -0.50 |
| Ospreys | 0.18 | -0.65 | 0.80 |
| Stormers | -0.13 | 0.80 | -0.90 |
| Scarlets | -0.46 | 0.41 | -0.90 |
| Lions | -3.65 | -3.00 | -0.60 |
| Dragons | -5.81 | -6.39 | 0.60 |
| Treviso | -5.95 | -6.46 | 0.50 |
| Zebre | -13.38 | -14.52 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Munster vs. Connacht | May 15 | 20 – 24 | 13.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Ulster | May 15 | 21 – 17 | 13.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Stormers | May 15 | 37 – 39 | 2.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues | May 16 | 28 – 29 | 5.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Sharks | May 16 | 43 – 9 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Treviso vs. Zebre | May 16 | 34 – 27 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors | May 16 | 24 – 31 | 5.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | May 16 | 26 – 42 | 0.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Stormers | May 22 | Sharks | 5.80 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Bulls | May 22 | Bulls | -2.40 |
| 3 | Munster vs. Cardiff Blues | May 29 | Munster | 16.60 |
| 4 | Ulster vs. Scarlets | May 30 | Ulster | 15.20 |
| 5 | Treviso vs. Connacht | May 30 | Connacht | -2.40 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Glasgow Warriors | May 30 | Glasgow Warriors | -2.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »