Top 14 Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.03 | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.12 | 2.32 | 3.80 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.63 | 3.22 | 2.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.19 | 6.21 | -1.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.16 | 5.61 | -1.50 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.76 | 2.83 | 0.90 |
| Montpellier | 3.18 | 2.30 | 0.90 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.29 | 3.56 | -1.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.26 | -3.22 | 3.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.03 | -0.47 | 0.40 |
| Brive | -1.68 | -3.26 | 1.60 |
| Section Paloise | -2.45 | -4.48 | 2.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.84 | -4.13 | -2.70 |
| SU Agen | -16.06 | -4.72 | -11.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 159 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais | May 12 | 29 – 10 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. La Rochelle | May 12 | 24 – 12 | -3.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 15 | Racing-Metro 92 | -2.10 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique | May 16 | Bordeaux-Begles | 9.30 |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais | May 16 | Clermont Auvergne | 8.80 |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. SU Agen | May 16 | La Rochelle | 27.70 |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. Brive | May 16 | Lyon Rugby | 11.30 |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier | May 16 | Stade Francais Paris | 2.60 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 16 | Stade Toulousain | 19.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »