Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
Another unusual week. There are two midweek games and the teams involved will be playing later in the week as well. I will give predictions for the weekend games after obtaining the results for the two midweek games.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.03 | 4.80 | 2.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.67 | 2.32 | 4.40 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.63 | 3.22 | 2.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.19 | 6.21 | -1.00 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.16 | 5.61 | -1.50 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.76 | 2.83 | 0.90 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.79 | 3.56 | -0.80 |
| Montpellier | 2.69 | 2.30 | 0.40 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.26 | -3.22 | 3.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.03 | -0.47 | 0.40 |
| Brive | -2.23 | -3.26 | 1.00 |
| Section Paloise | -2.45 | -4.48 | 2.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.84 | -4.13 | -2.70 |
| SU Agen | -16.06 | -4.72 | -11.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 157 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby | May 08 | 37 – 29 | 0.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles | May 09 | 22 – 47 | -3.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris | May 09 | 28 – 31 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. La Rochelle | May 09 | 32 – 22 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne | May 09 | 45 – 19 | 3.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain | May 09 | 44 – 10 | -0.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | SU Agen vs. Section Paloise | May 09 | 7 – 47 | -6.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais | May 12 | Montpellier | 5.40 |
| 2 | Brive vs. La Rochelle | May 12 | La Rochelle | -3.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »