Super Rugby Predictions for Week 13
Team Ratings for Week 13
Just a note concerning the ratings this week. There have been no games between Australian and New Zealand sides since early in 2020. The ratings below started off from the ratings after the last of those games and have been updated based on games in Super Rugby Aotearoa and Super Rugby Australia in 2020 and 2021. Caution is needed about the ratings for this next series of Super Rugby games because of this ratings history. I chose not to shrink the previous ratings before the start of this series of games which is something I usually do to a minor extent between seasons.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 14.57 | 14.49 | 0.10 |
| Blues | 7.68 | 7.80 | -0.10 |
| Hurricanes | 6.55 | 7.13 | -0.60 |
| Chiefs | 4.58 | 4.38 | 0.20 |
| Brumbies | 3.32 | 1.47 | 1.80 |
| Highlanders | 3.11 | 2.70 | 0.40 |
| Reds | 2.62 | 1.59 | 1.00 |
| Rebels | -4.40 | -3.51 | -0.90 |
| Waratahs | -8.87 | -5.02 | -3.80 |
| Western Force | -11.18 | -13.05 | 1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 43 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | May 08 | 24 – 13 | 16.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Brumbies | May 08 | 19 – 16 | 5.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 13
Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Reds | May 14 | Highlanders | 7.00 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Hurricanes | May 14 | Hurricanes | -8.90 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Brumbies | May 15 | Crusaders | 17.80 |
| 4 | Rebels vs. Blues | May 15 | Blues | -5.60 |
| 5 | Western Force vs. Chiefs | May 15 | Chiefs | -9.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »