May 11, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.59 7.35 0.20
Bristol 5.01 1.28 3.70
Harlequins 3.82 -1.08 4.90
Sale Sharks 3.45 4.96 -1.50
Northampton Saints -0.20 -2.48 2.30
Wasps -0.81 5.66 -6.50
Gloucester -1.02 -1.02 0.00
Bath -2.89 2.14 -5.00
Leicester Tigers -4.08 -6.14 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.88 -10.00 3.10
London Irish -6.97 -8.05 1.10
Worcester Warriors -10.11 -5.71 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 08 26 – 10 11.40 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Bristol May 09 20 – 40 -1.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors May 09 41 – 10 21.10 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish May 09 52 – 27 2.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 09 7 – 31 8.40 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Wasps May 10 48 – 46 10.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks May 15 Sale Sharks -1.80
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins May 16 Harlequins -3.40
3 Wasps vs. Worcester Warriors May 16 Wasps 13.80
4 Bristol vs. Gloucester May 18 Bristol 10.50
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints May 18 Northampton Saints -2.20
6 London Irish vs. Exeter Chiefs May 19 Exeter Chiefs -10.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »