NRL Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
I have adjusted these predictions now because I see that all games are being played at Suncorp Stadium. The home ground advantage values have been changed for all but the Warriors versus the Eels.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 20.30 | 14.53 | 5.80 |
| Panthers | 14.26 | 8.88 | 5.40 |
| Roosters | 12.71 | 10.25 | 2.50 |
| Eels | 9.32 | 1.68 | 7.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 6.61 | 7.73 | -1.10 |
| Raiders | -0.53 | 6.98 | -7.50 |
| Warriors | -1.93 | -1.84 | -0.10 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.37 | -4.77 | 2.40 |
| Dragons | -2.80 | -4.95 | 2.20 |
| Sharks | -4.41 | -0.76 | -3.60 |
| Knights | -4.80 | -2.61 | -2.20 |
| Titans | -5.92 | -7.22 | 1.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.75 | -3.07 | -4.70 |
| Broncos | -10.30 | -11.16 | 0.90 |
| Cowboys | -10.58 | -8.05 | -2.50 |
| Bulldogs | -13.82 | -7.62 | -6.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | May 06 | 0 – 50 | -2.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Sharks | May 07 | 48 – 0 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Roosters | May 07 | 31 – 18 | -3.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Knights | May 08 | 16 – 24 | 10.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | May 08 | 28 – 36 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | May 08 | 19 – 18 | 3.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Warriors | May 09 | 38 – 32 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | May 09 | 32 – 12 | 12.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wests Tigers vs. Knights | May 14 | Knights | -3.00 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | May 14 | Sea Eagles | -4.90 |
| 3 | Bulldogs vs. Raiders | May 15 | Raiders | -13.30 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Rabbitohs | May 15 | Rabbitohs | -11.00 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | May 15 | Roosters | 23.30 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Eels | May 16 | Eels | -11.20 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Dragons | May 16 | Storm | 26.10 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Panthers | May 16 | Panthers | -17.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »